Manchester United and Arsenal are ranked one and two, respectively, in the number of goals scored in the Premiership so far this season.
Man U = 52 goals
Arsenal = 43 goals
Manchester United and Arsenal are also ranked one and two in goal difference this year.
Man U = 36 goals
Arsenal = 24 goals (tied with Chelsea)
So, why are these two teams not 1st and 2nd in the league table?
The answer, I?m sure only a part of it, but likely a significant part, is found in: (1) when Man U scores their goals; and (2) the difference that makes in a game.
As indicated above, Man U has scored 9 more Premiership goals than Arsenal this year. That difference of 9 goals scored can be found in the first 30 minutes of their games.
In the first 30 minutes of their 23 Prem games, Man U has scored an astounding 16 goals, and Arsenal a more mundane total of 7 goals (there is the 9-goal difference). In the last 60 minutes, both teams have scored 36 goals each.
Perhaps equally as important, Man U?s opponents have scored only 2 goals in the first 30 minutes all year (in 2 games), whereas Arsenal?s opponents have scored 9 goals in the first 30 minutes (in 8 games).
And, in the 2 games that Man U?s opponents scored those early goals, Man U came from behind to win (yes, they were against relatively poor teams, Sheffield United and Wigan). In the 8 games where Arsenal?s opponent scored early, Arsenal?s record is 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses (the wins were against Charlton, Blackburn, and Watford ? not stellar opposition).
So far this season, scoring early makes a big difference. Here?s more:
Man U won all of the 8 games in which they scored in the first 15 minutes. Man U won all 10 games in which they scored in the first 30 minutes.
Arsenal won both of the games where they scored in the first 15 minutes, and also won all 5 games in which they scored in the first 30 minutes.
I have watched a few of Man U?s games this year. Apart from their overall quality and exciting style of play, what has impressed me the most is how they start their games ? they come out of the gate applying relentless pressure. This has an observable and measurable impact ? they rattle their opponent, and they win. And when Arsenal scores early, they have a perfect winning record.
Sunday?s game will be interesting from many aspects ? one will be if scoring early leads to 3 points. Chances are it will.
Go Gunners.
34 Responses to “Goals! Goals! Goals!”
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January 15th, 2007 at 3:59 pm
On Sunday we’ll need to hit the ground running. If Chelsea win on Saturday, which definitely isn’t a given against Liverpool, United will be desperate to increase their lead. We can not come out draggin’ ass. After the past few matches we’ve been able to stay calm and absorb enormous pressure put on us by Liverpool and still get our goals. That will give us confidence.
We may be the top scoring teams in the EPL but no one’s scoring many goals on either of these two keepers. They’re the best in the league, besides Cech. The good thing is United will come to play football so it should be an exciting match. We’ve got too many fit strikers in good form to play a 4-5-1 so it’s game on.
Both sets of fullbacks look easy targets but our advantage is our widemen get back and help out in defense better than theirs. If Hleb shows up to play on Sunday, we will win. All of our strikers are in better form than all of theirs so I can’t wait until Sunday.
If we win this game I think we’ll run out the rest of the season unbeaten. In fact, we’ll probably win all of those games. With Henry back we have simply an unfair advantage over every team in the league. We really needed to win at Sheffield as we would only be six points behind Chelsea. They still have to play us, Liverpool, and United ie. massive pressure on the champions. Here’s to hoping Liverpool have their Chelsea mojo going on Saturday.
Lastly, we will miss Gilberto on Sunday. He was MOTM by a mile in the first Man U game. I hope we don’t miss him too much.
January 15th, 2007 at 4:46 pm
Just imagine if Arsenal win on Sunday and Liverpool/Chelsea draw. I think we’ll have a title race on again, boys. I’ve seen United look quite good and, on occasion, I’ve seen them look quite jaded. They can drop points. I watched their first team get beat in the league cup by some scrubs. They are not invincible and will drop points again.
Chelsea aren’t invincible either and if we maintain our current form, we can walk them both down. We collapsed in ‘02-’03 from a 13 point lead late in the season. If we win Sunday, it’s only 12 points and it’s still only January. I know many of you guys think it’s over but it’s not.
“It ain’t over til the fat lady sang, and that b*tch ain’t due to perform for another four months.” (got that quote from an old crusty Sergeant Major named Charlie Thorpe a long time ago).
They’ve still got FOUR WHOLE MONTHS to keep their sh*t together. We’ve seen teams in the past, including our very own Arsenal, jam this thing up before so what makes Man United and Chelsea so special? Nothing!
January 15th, 2007 at 4:58 pm
A bit too early for title talk. I said before Christmas we needed to put some daylight between us and the group behind. We could then reassess at the end of January.
Well, we are beginning to pull ahead of the likes of Portsmouth and Bolton while Spurs, Wigan and Villa have disappeared from the rear mirror. Looking up, there are two big games this weekend but even if they go our way, I would like to see a few more games before saying we are back in the title race. I certainly agree that Chelsea are vulnerable but Utd. are well ahead and in good form.
January 15th, 2007 at 5:06 pm
You may have hit on something here.
Where did you get the stats as I would like to compare us with Chelsea. They have the exact same goal difference as us (but have scored less goals) yet they are nine points ahead.
January 15th, 2007 at 5:40 pm
Win the title? You really are a glutton for disappointment aren’t you?
Man Utd have only lost 2 games in 23. Even if Arsenal beat them we’d still be 12 pts behind with an inferior goal difference. Man Utd would have to lose 4 out of their remaining 14 games and Arsenal would have to win all of them to even stand a chance.
A few good games and yet again your expectations become completely unrealistic. Stop daydreaming and start living in the real world.
January 15th, 2007 at 5:44 pm
This has to be an early contender for most stupid, pointless and meaningless article of 2007.
January 15th, 2007 at 6:28 pm
I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for this team to finish the season unbeaten. Fixture congestion, injuries and youth will probably do in the team at some point. You forget that for all the quality games against big opponents, that this team tends to play up or down to their competition and still have problems away from home and particularly against physical opposition.
January 15th, 2007 at 6:31 pm
Arsenal will not really challenge for the title this season. They may get much closer, but there is too large a gap to catch Man U this year. I think that their team would have to spontaneously combust for Arsenal to catch them. Man U and/or Chelsea may stumble, but we’ve seen this team fall over their own feet too many times to assume that they won’t do it again. I think next season will be a much closer race though.
January 15th, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Not sure why u consider ManUre’s style of play exciting. Only Ronaldo, Giggs and Rooney have the ability to run with the ball and open up opposition defence. When their left and right backs get the ball on the wings, they will invariably lash the ball into the penalty box and hope for a header or a mistake from the defenders. And when Scholes gets the ball, he will be passing sideways to the wings. They like to have players run from deep positions into the box - thats why Arsenal players need to be able to clear first time when those high balls come in. They are probably less ‘dirty’ since the departure of Keane but make no mistake, players like Scholes and Neville will not hesitate to employ questionable means to win the ball.
Just read that Mike “I luv ManUre” Riley will be the referee. Not exactly my favourite ref after he helped ManUre end Arsenal’s unbeaten run.
January 15th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
U are letting the recent victories cloud your judgement. Arsenal is too far behind. Be happy if we win 3rd place and possibly one of the remaining cups.
January 15th, 2007 at 8:06 pm
Two links below. The first link, will display graphs of goals scored vs goals allowed for each 15 minute interval (at the bottom of the web page).
The second link is the results page - if you go to the column titled final, you can go to each match’s report and see when goals were scored for each game.
When I did this before posting my stupid, pointless, and meaningless article, I checked the graphs vs the match reports and found only one discrepancy.
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/team/stats?id=363&cc=5901
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/team/results?id=363&cc=5901
January 15th, 2007 at 8:14 pm
Why do I consider ManUre’s style of play exciting…
You raise a question that makes me want to change the word “style” to something else, because when I think about it, it is more about their energy rather than style (e.g., Arsenal’s style is above any one else’s). There energy, at least in the games I remember, tends to be at a sustained high level. And, a point of my article was that their energy, especially in the beginning minutes of a game, sometimes seems almost breathtaking, and disarming to most opponents.
January 15th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
Well, we have scored 6 against Blackburn, 4 against Charlton, 4 against Reading, 3 against Liverpool, 3 against Sheffield, 3 against Tottenham and 3 against Watford. That’s a total of 26 goals in 7 games and we conceded only twice(Blackburn). In the remaining 16 games we have scored 17 goals. Chelsea on the other hand don’t have that much impressive victories, they know how to distribute their goals, we don’t. Their wins are 2:0, 2:0, 2:1, 3:1… They are more consistent.
January 15th, 2007 at 8:42 pm
Yes I agree that ManUre does play a high tempo game. Much like a full court press. Always hustling for the ball. Always firing in hard crosses and creating confusion in the opponents defence. For style, Wengerball is tops in the EPL.
January 15th, 2007 at 11:30 pm
Boys, be realistic…..title this year is OUT OF REACH…..we’re too far behind and Man U will not implode…..they are consistently consistent (redundant but true). It would be something of a minor miracle if beat Chelski to the 2nd spot….which could happen if Chelski self destruct, which with all the internal unrest, Terry’s absence and the loss of the “aura” may be possible, but admittedly farfetched; plus we have to remain perfect, which we have seen is impossible this season.
About Sunday: We will sorely MISS Gilberrto (also, no Gilberto for Bolton in FA Cup); his replacement (Flamini???) has to play out of his skin for us to stay in that game. They will be out for revenge and inflicting the “first loss at Emirates” statistic and will be viscious and I wouldn’t put it past them to cheat either: Rooney/Ronaldo diving; overly harsh tackles, etc…..we will need to have a perfect game and score with every real chance we have. Larsson could hurt us again, just as he did in last year’s CL final. He’ll have to be watched closely……he is a fantastic player with real venom….SAF got a great deal on him.
January 16th, 2007 at 12:07 am
Like in most sports… scoring first is a big advantage. It can change the way the other team approaches the game. We haven’t scored first very often… at least that seems to be the case. We haven’t been very good coming from behind either.
If you remember the recent successful seasons, we often scored one or two goals in the first 20 minutes, and the match was OVER. We blew teams off the pitch EARLY in the Unbeaten season. There is NOTHING like that going on with this current team. Not even remotely.
The thought that we can win the league is LUDICROUS. So could Tottenham. They aren’t mathematically eliminated yet either.
You state if we beat Man United on Sunday, we will probably go the rest of the season unbeaten??
We have an unfair advantage over the rest of the league?
What matches have you been watching this year?? I think your DVD player is playing the matches from the Invincibles year… we are far far far far far away from that. Your kidding yourself or dillusional if you think we can win the league or go unbeaten the rest of the way.
Get down to your local Bookmaker… they’d LOVE to take your bets on us winning the league and going unbeaten. Give them your money.
We ARE looking better recently with Henry back and looking in form… and our injured players returning… and everybody chipping in to help the cause. But stop KIDDING YOURSELF. Seriously.
Their grounds for optimism. But you’re out of bounds.
January 16th, 2007 at 3:40 am
Stag, or you can just write - I don’t believe we can win the league this season, let’s be realistic.
Points taken. There is really no need to use the sarcastic tone just to make a point.
If those who still BELIEVES are guilty, they are merely guilty of keeping faith in the team when most people already written the team off. And to me, there is nothing wrong about it. Afterall, when you are 10 points clear at the top of the table then telling the world we can win it is much more easier than when you are 16 points off the pace yet still believe you can win it.
January 16th, 2007 at 4:35 am
I did say we have an unfair advantage over other teams in the league WITH HENRY IN THE TEAM. Read the whole thing. Any team good team with an in-form Henry would have an advantage. Did you see the runs/goals he scored last week? Who else can do that every week?
Yes, I believe if we win on Sunday, we could probably go through the rest of the season unbeaten. Our team is getting healthy, experienced, and the talent is there so what says it can’t happen?
Who saw us losing the league being up thirteen points in March 2003? We were a pretty good team that year and just somehow lost our minds and what should have been our title. The year before, Man United were fifteen points above us and we walked them down then, starting with a similar away win with ten men over Liverpool. If we win on Sunday, Man United are only up 12 over us and it’s only January, not March.
This is Arsenal. Everyone said Wenger was nuts when he said his team could go unbeaten over an entire season. You guys told me I was nuts when I BOLDLY CLAIMED ON THIS SITE that Arsenal would beat Real Madrid and Juventus in the CL last year. Wenger might be nuts. I might be nuts. Anyone bold enough to write off a team as talented as Arsenal in January are nuttier than the both of us. The only ones silly enough to write off what Arsenal can do are some of you. I gurantee you that Man Utd, Chelsea, and Liverpool haven’t written Arsenal off yet.
I didn’t say we’d win but that it could be a race. I could be wrong. Let’s let time tell. Time always tells the truth.
January 16th, 2007 at 7:02 am
Now you are backtracking, it was obvious you were inferring Arsenal could win the league still. It’s true that football is a stupid game sometimes, Liverpool 3 Arsenal babies 6 tells you all you need to know, but that is just one match, you are asking for Man Utd AND Chelsea to completely collapse.
Chelsea aren’t even losing, they’re drawing a few and Man Utd are far too good for most of the crappy teams they will play between now and the end of the season. Last season was considered a bad one for Man Utd, they lost 5 games in 38 - now you expect them to lose 5 in 15. Chelsea has raised the bar and now teams have to have much bigger and better squads than they did even 3 years ago, so the chances of teams imploding become less realistic every year.
Try thinking a bit harder before making such outrageous claims and giving yourself false hopes.
January 16th, 2007 at 7:21 am
Come on Danny T, you can read. I’m not backtracking. I’ve said title race in my original post and in my second post and I’m saying title race again now.
The only outrageous claims I’ve made is that Arsenal would beat Juve and Real Madrid last year. I wasn’t inferring anything then, that was a bold claim leaving nothing left to guess. This time it’s about if we win this weekend, it can become an actual race we can be involved in. There is no claim.
As far as a “false hopes”, well I simply don’t know what that term means. Perhaps I’m a bit ignorant or maybe it’s not really a term. Regardless, I don’t know what you mean.
January 16th, 2007 at 11:50 am
True enough, using statistics you could build an argument on any topic.
Sadly, statistics and reality rarely play on the same pitch, even though they both use the same venue.
January 16th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
False hope? Pretty common terminology I thought. Means deluding yourself into thinking something is achievable when realistically it isn’t.
January 16th, 2007 at 2:52 pm
Getting off the general topic of whether the EPL race is over for this year, do any of you have a view as to what is the most pro-Arsenal bar in Manhattan to watch the Gunners/ManU game on Sunday? And please don’t tell me Nevada Smith’s because that’s a ManU bar in my book.
January 16th, 2007 at 3:34 pm
Sorry, I confused hope with faith.
If we win Sunday, I don’t think us being in the title race is something that’s realistically unachievable. Arsenal have some pretty good players. They’ve shown great resolve to beat Blackburn away with ten men. I have “true hope” that Arsenal will find the consistency required to make it a race and I have “faith” United will drop points. Let me repeat, I’m not hoping for a title, I’m hoping for a race. If we can pressure them, maybe they’ll fold under pressure like we did in ‘03.
We’ve beat this horse enough, man. Let’s agree to disagree and discuss something else tomorrow.
January 16th, 2007 at 3:37 pm
If it were Larsson instead of Derbyshire with those 2 missed goal chances, the score could be 2-2 instead.
January 16th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
“Arsenal = 24 goals (tied with Chelsea)
So, why are these two teams not 1st and 2nd in the league table?”
Because at the end of the day, a win is a win, and we don’t get extra points for wining 6-2 or scoring more than 3 goals in a game.
United has by far won the most games by 2 to 3 goals this season, and deserved to be in 1st place
Chelsea has scrapped many 1-goal victories when Arsenal has lost 1-0 or 2-1 too many times, as well as those annoying 1-1 draws at home. When we win, it’s usually 3-0, so had we been more consistent and our goals get redistributed more evenly over the season, we’d be in 1st or 2nd place right now.
The major difference between Man Utd and Arsenal (aside from the results/points) is that Man Utd has been confident of their abilities and they have relatively zero injuries to first-team players all season long, which goes a long way in terms of grinding out results - especially those come from behind wins. Even during their losses to Arsenal and West Ham, United never lacked confidence and had a fight to try and get a result, but just ran out of time. I remember those nerving moments when OGS shot’ was pushed wide by lehman in the dying seconds in the Arsenal game - credit to United for not giving up fight.
In the first half of Arsenal’s season, in fact since the end of 2004-2005, there weren't much confidence in the squad. Remembering the 7-0 thumping of Everton at the end of 2004-2005 and 7-0 win against Boro at home last year, we ended up losing the next game on both occassion, again due to our inconstency.
Over the past 2 seasons I think our squad was better for 1-off cup competition games rather than stringing together consistent results required to win the league. Hopefully in the second half of this season we can get results and finish 3rd (or even 2nd should Chelsea/United slips) to prepare for next season. With 3 straight wins on the road up north, I’m quite pleased to see the current squard adding another dimension to their beautiful game and has learned how to stick together as a team during adversity and while playing against phyiscal opponents.
With United still in form and Arsenal ever-more confident, this Sunday’s match will be much more interested than the encounter earlier this season.
January 16th, 2007 at 4:44 pm
If it was Larrson then I’m sure there would be defenders all over him. There is a higher probability that Larrson wouldn’t miss those sitters, but never a gurantee.
January 16th, 2007 at 8:46 pm
Premiership 06/07 - Big Four Only
Pos Team P W D L F A Pts
1 Arsenal 3 2 1 0 5 1 7
2 Chelsea 3 1 2 0 3 2 5
3 Manchester United 3 1 1 1 3 2 4
4 Liverpool 3 0 0 3 0 6 0
January 16th, 2007 at 10:14 pm
A bit harsh! Histrionic, too.
I don’t deny that football is one of the sports where statistical analysis falls way short to explain anything (my post isn’t exactly a statistical analysis by any stretch). And, pardon the presumption that this is the nature of your objection.
All I tried to do (admittedly I perhaps failed) was to provide: (1) a message that ManU applies relentless pressure right out of the gate, and (2) perhaps such an approach has (had) an effect on the opposition. I thinks Arsenal tends to lollygag too much in the beginning of games, and perhaps that has cost them; I have yet to see Man U do that.
Also, it provides a venue to talk about a big upcoming game. Pretty harmless stuff.
January 16th, 2007 at 10:38 pm
Two big points you make:
1. Injuries - absolutely has hurt Arsenal, and the generaly lack of have aided Man U’s season. In fact, many in the press talk about how they think Man U is a relatively ‘thin’ team (are they really???); but, you can win it all and be ‘thin’ as long as the injury bug doesn’t hit. Who knows? It still could.
2. Inconsistency - I believe this is due to our youth, which lends itself to lack of mental toughness. I don’t know how mentally strong Arsenal really is. But, winning against the bigger Premiership clubs, in the Cups, and in the CL so far, while failing against the clubs we should beat, indicates a lack of toughness needed to carry a team through a 9-month ordeal.
Also, you bring up the idea of possibly finishing second. I agree with most posts here that finishing first is likely more than just a longshot — partly becuase there are two strong teams ahead of us (three if you count Liverpool), not just one. Too many stars have to get in alignment. But, I do think second is not out of the question. It’ll take some fortunate circumstances, though.
January 17th, 2007 at 9:00 pm
which means feck all in the REAL league and the grand scheme of things.
This would be wonderful if we were a 4 team super-league…
but over the long haul of the season… we’re 4th of these 4. (so far, with 3rd the only realistic hope)
January 18th, 2007 at 5:43 am
Lets wait and see where we are after the second round of games, i.e. 6 games have been played.
If we are clearly on top here, i.e. by 4 - 6 points then I doubt we will be 4th in the league, we also have two home games to play with one away one, and Liverpool have 3 home games, with Man U having three away games and Chelsea two away games to play.
January 18th, 2007 at 12:08 pm
What a sh*t attitude. Not being mathematically out of it IS the real world. Would you say what you said to the players in the locker room?
Let United start getting a few key injuries, and anything can happen. What’s “likely” is irrelevant entirely.
January 18th, 2007 at 1:42 pm
I’m not sure that 2nd is totally unrealistic. Chelsea is only six points ahead of us (I think) and theys still have to come to the Emirates. I’m not sure that Arsenal will catch them, but it is not an outlandish thought.