Two Previews — LDE’s take is after the following
Ah the irony. Arsenal get a long break in between league games when they don’t need it.Ofcourse, the break also means the team should be ready for their 36th league game, provided most of them are not already thinking of vacation. Since after Chelsea’s win on Saturday and Liverpool’s dropped points, this Monday night game is important because a win would mean:
Now, if Arsenal along with Man Utd and Chelsea win all their remaining league games, then Arsenal will only finish 4 points off the top. A 4 point deficit would be an achievement given all the on-field and off field issues that Arsenal have had in 2008. It is unlikely that any other top European team has had to endure so much drama and emotional trauma as Arsenal have had in the last few months, even more so than the soap-opera that takes place in Real Madrid and Barcelona on a daily basis. Also, there is a remote possibility that if Arsenal win all their 3 games and the top two mysteriously collapse and lose their last two games or earn just one point out of a possible 6, the Gunners could still take the title. But that would require some divine intervention and unfortunately that is something that has been in short supply for Arsenal in 2008.
A point here, a point there:
Arsenal’s problems might seem like a dream for Derby who have endured the worst season for a team in the Premier League. With three games to go, Derby are just 4 points from breaking Sunderland’s record of lowest point total of 15 in the league. This is a record that no team would want to be ever remembered for. But Derby have had to endure this threat of lowest point total from just before the New Year. Given their current dire situation, if Derby look back then the first half of the season appears to be better when they atleast collected 7 points from their opening 19 games. Since the start of 2008, they have only gained 4 more points.
As it stands, Derby’s single victory in the league came all the way back on Monday, Sept 17 when Kenny Miller’s lone strike earned them a 1-0 win over Newcastle in their 6th league game. The season started so promisingly for Derby when they opened their campaign with a 2-2 home tie against Pompey. But narrow defeats, bad luck in some games and heavy thrashings soon followed, including 4-0, 6-0 and 5-0 away defeats to Spurs, Liverpool and Arsenal respectively all before the end of September. Derby followed the 5-0 defeat at the hands of Arsenal to go back home and salvage a 1-1 tie with Bolton on Sat, Sept 29. Since that 1-1 game, Derby’s remaining points have come via the following ties: 0-0 Fulham (away), 2-2 Newcastle (away), 1-1 Man City (home), 1-1 Birmingham (away), 0-0 Sunderland (home) and 2-2 Fulham (home).
So Derby will have ended the season unbeaten against Fulham and Newcastle. Of the 35 games so far, Derby have found the net just 17 times while letting in 76 goals for a goal difference of -59, easily the worst of any team since the Premier league reduced to 20 teams at the start of the 1995/96 season.
The points at the bottom:
Since the 1995/96 season, only Sunderland have managed a points total of less than 20 and they managed that on two separate occasions. Derby look set to join Sunderland in that category, unless they can win all three of their remaining games. Besides Derby, the other two relegation places are still to be decided. No matter who joins them, it is now clear that the third relegated team won’t earn more than 38 points. A long time ago, it was believed that 40 points was a safe benchmark to ensure survival in the league. And looking at the point totals of the three relegated teams over the past 12 seasons, that number still looks to be a very safe bet, even though West Ham were relegated in 2002/03 with 42 points. Also, in 1997/98 Everton and Bolton ended the season with 40 points but Everton stayed up with a goal difference of -15 compared to Bolton’s -20. Sunderland went down with 40 points in 1996/97 and 41 proved to be the safe number that year.
Season: Team (point total of bottom three teams, goal difference)
2006/07: Sheffield Utd (38, -23), Charlton (34, -26), Watford (28, -30)
2005/06: Birmingham (34, -22), West Brom (30, -27), Sunderland (15, -43)
2004/05: Crystal Palace (33, -21), Norwich (33, -35), Southampton (32, -21)
2003/04: Leicester (33, -17), Leeds (33, -39), Wolves (33, -39)
2002/03: West Ham (42, -17), West Brom (26, -36), Sunderland (19, -44)
2001/02: Ipswich (36, -23), Derby (30, -30), Leicester (28, -34)
2000/01: Man City (34, -24), Coventry (34, -27), Bradford (26, -40)
1999/00: Wimbledon (33, -28), Sheffield Wed (31, -32), Watford (24, -42)
1998/99: Charlton (36, -15), Blackburn (35, -14), Nottingham Forest (30, -34)
1997/98: Bolton (40, -20), Barnsley (35, -45), Crystal Palace (33, -34)
1996/97: Sunderland (40, -18), Middlesbrough (39, -9), Nottingham Forest (34, -28)
1995/96: Man City (38, -25), QPR (33, -19), Bolton (29, -32)
First Gelato and now Honey?:
Even though there are three games left, injuries ended the season early for Eduardo, Rosicky, Diaby and Sagna. Hleb’s season has also ended early thanks to his attempts to swat the bee that was hovering over the Reading captain. But Hleb had no defense and was convinced that no one would believe that he was merely trying to protect Murty from the dangerous bee that was descending on him. It is unclear at this point whether Hleb’s slap might be his last contribution in an Arsenal shirt and whether the bee sighting would convince him to move onto sweeter pastures. If that is the case, then Milan might be appropriate because the cooler climates in the city prevent bees from visiting the city as often as those in Southern Italy or even around the Tuscan region. But what will happen when Inter have to play away games? Rome might be ok as the Gelato there is better than in Milan. But what about Sicily and Naples?
Hopefully, all the other Arsenal players are motivated to finish off the season in style and pick up 3 wins.
Here’s LDE’s preview:
The season rolls on along to a close with nothing much to look forward to except us winning all 3 games and finishing on 83 points and hope to hell that Barca somehow somehow manage to beat ManU. Not much I know…but I thought this year has been very positive overall. With nothing to show..I know…but quite positive…Oh well..Derby next…
Paul Jewell has not had any impact on a Derby side which tbf has been pathetic all season. I liked fat Jewell and his Wigan side. Experienced defense and a decent attack. Still remember their first game where Crespo hit an injury time winner after Wigan nearly nicked points off Chelsea first game of the premiership. Sadly its been all downhill for Derby all season.
Anyway there’s not really much to say except this being a game where we get to see how some of the bench guys perform. Third is more or less certain now after the Chelsea win so AW can play around a bit to see how his fringe players go and get his final thoughts on what he needs to buy next season. There’s hardly any use doing a tactical preview because the result is probably a foregone conclusion ; even though nothing is certain in football. I’ll just stick to the side that AW will probably name.
Fabianski
Hoyte Senderos Song Clichy
Eboue Denilson Gilberto Walcott
RVP Bendtner
Derby 0 – Arsenal 3
